EXPERT OPINION ABOUT CURRENT STOCK MARKET SCENARIO

During this time of turbulence in the markets, I must congratulate you for taking the wise decision to remain patient. At this time I also wanted to share with you some facts from the history of the markets in India.

It is important for all investors who invest or tend to invest in equities to take a trip down memory lane, particulary during times when the investor feels tired and let down by the market. We need to be aware that this kind of despair is not new in the market but public memory being short, one tends to forget the days of despair.

Let me take some of your precious time to draw your attention to the table below depicting the peaks and bottoms of the Sensex in the recent past. Only the recent past is given here because it is relatively easier to connect to it.

SENSEX HIGH DATE SENSEX LOW DATE

4546 02.04.1992 1980 27.04.1993

4643 12.09.1994 2713 04.12.1996

6150 14.02.2000 2156 03.10.2001

6249 09.01.2004 4227 17.05.2004

12671 11.05.2006 8799 14.06.2006

14723 09.02.2007 12316 16.03.2007

21206 10.01.2008 8701 24.10.2008


I hope that you remember the historic bull phase of early 1990s charging to 4546 points from below 1000 points during the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, in April 1992. The most interesting development of this period was the amazing growth of investor population in the country and stock investing becoming fashionable for the first time, with new Stock Exchanges mushrooming in every nook and corner of the country. When the hero (or villain?) of the great bull market, Harshad Mehta was caught by the law enforcing agencies, the market collapsed like a pack of cards crushing millions of new investors who had entered the market during the peak time, leaving them in utter agony. The pain was much more than what we are seeing these days. The market mood was incredibly low and many investors along with doomsayers predicted the end of the market and the end of an asset class called equities. As the table shows, in a short span of one year from April 1992 to April 1993, investors found their wealth coming down by more than 55%. Many fortune seekers who borrowed and invested and many others who had invested their life time savings for the marriage of children to retirement life, saw their wealth disappearing in one year’s time. The painful part was that though the index came down by only 55%, many of the shares manipulated by operators came down to zero value. This tragedy occurred at a time when market regulations were weak and SEBI had no effective punitive power.

At some point of time you must have felt disappointed and angry at the way the market has been moving. Now look at the table again. In a matter of seventeen months the very same market bounced back to touch 4643 points. Think of all those who sold in disappointment during April 1993 when the index was at 1980 points! The market went up by more than 100 percent in 17 months! Just have a look at the market peaks alone. The next peak was at 6150 (in 3 years 2 months), the next at 6249 (in 2 years 3 months), then at 12671 (in 2 years), then at 14723 (in 8 months) and then at 21206 points (in 10 months). My intention is not to predict when and to where the Sensex will bounce back in the days to come, but to point out that all those who courageously got into the market in each of the troughs and waited patiently made incredible wealth as the market always peaked above the previous peak.

Now what happened to those who invested during the peak time in each of the market peaks – you know many new investors tend to start investing at the peak – they saw their wealth going down by 40 to 60 percent! Compare this to the wealth of all those who got into the market when the market touched bottom every time! Indeed, it requires courage to invest when every other investor leaves the market.

In this backdrop we must also analyse what is happening in the market that is pulling the Sensex down to 8700 points. Many foreign institutions and hedge funds have become bankrupt in their home countries forcing them to sell Indian assets at throwaway prices pulling our market down. One serious difference is that this time we have a global magnitude to this crash in relation to liquidity.

The one who can invest now, particularly in companies which are sitting with lots of cash in their balance sheet will make extraordinary returns when the dust settles down.

I felt that it is my duty to share with you some facts to enable you to look from a better perspective at the current events. Of course it is difficult to predict market tops and bottoms, but I wish to assure you that this is not the end of equity markets, and it will never be.

An article by Mr.George Geojit Securities